ENERGY AND CLIMATE CHANGE

– A Canadian Engineering Perspective –

The Canadian Academy of Engineering is undertaking an “Energy and Climate Change” study in accordance with its mandate of:   “…speaking out on issues relevant to engineering in Canada and abroad”.  In September 2000 a Working Group was formed to define what role the Academy could play in the Energy / Climate Change debate.  The Working Group reviewed a wide range of existing data on present and projected energy demand and supply systems.  The results of this review were presented to the membership of the Academy at the 2001 Annual General Meeting. This report contains basically the information as presented at that time.

While the development of a long-term, sustainable energy strategy involves many different aspects, one common factor is technology.  The Academy, through the vast knowledge and expertise of its members, can make an important contribution to the development of such a strategy by providing a critical, unbiased  review of the technologies relevant to both, the energy demand and the energy supply system.

The highlights from the overview by the Working Group were:

¨       the global demand for energy will increase by a factor of 5 - 6 during the next century, with nearly all of this increase coming from developing nations, because of population growth and growth in GDP

¨       a majority of scientists agree that the climate has already been affected by human activities since the beginning of the industrial revolution

¨       while there are sufficient conventional (hydro-carbon based) sources of energy to meet even the most extreme projections of future demands, the environmental consequences would be unacceptable

¨       a wait-and-see attitude is not acceptable for evaluating definitive climate changes, and hence for developing an energy strategy capable of coping with changing circumstances

¨       future energy use scenarios, developed for Canada and for the world, show that even the most optimistic scenarios will lead to significant increases in the average temperature of the earth's surface

¨       to accommodate the large increase in the demand for energy without major environmental problems, it will be necessary to greatly expand the choice of energy sources and at the same time increase the efficiency of energy use

¨       the key factor in expanding the choices of affordable and acceptable energy sources, as well as reducing the energy demand, is the development of new technologies

¨       the cost of delivering energy will always need to be carefully considered, since some of the most desirable energy sources from an environmental point of view are also the most expensive

¨       a long-term, sustainable energy strategy implies that it meets the needs of the present without jeopardizing the needs of future generations in any respect, economically, environmentally, and socially

¨       the complexities inherent to the actual development of sufficient and adequate new energy technologies will involve immense engineering challenges

¨       the Canadian Academy of Engineering can make a unique contribution to the debate and to the development of an energy strategy by critically assessing the emerging energy technologies and evaluating their potential for helping to solve the “energy” problem

The conclusion of the Working Group is that hydrocarbon-based energy sources should be able to satisfy the six-fold increase in the demand for energy, which is forecast for this century.  However, the risk that such a strategy would have significant effects on the climate, and therefore on the global environment, is probably too large to accept.

A long-term, sustainable energy strategy needs to be developed, which will necessarily require a larger choice of energy sources and energy technologies, than presently available.  Given the immense challenges of developing energy technologies and the collective expertise of the members of the Canadian Academy of Engineering, it is evident that the Academy can play an important role in the assessment of those already available, as well as entirely new energy technologies.

[The complete report may be downloaded as a .pdf file]